October 21

Electricity prices, European gas, oil demand, and a bit of Alberta wind

Happy Friday and welcome to our many new subscribers (and those added from the previous email list). I hope you’re all enjoying the new Substack interface.

This week’s full chart package is posted at https://aleach.ca/charts.

We’ve got three stories and a few other charts to note this week.

The most impactful chart of the week for most Albertans is from Blake Shaffer:

Simply put, electricity prices are going to be really expensive this winter and if you’re not on an electricity contract right now, you might want to consider one. That said, please be careful that you don’t get locked into really high prices or high administration and exit fees. There are links to help you in the charts pack story.

In the regular charts package, the natural gas movements in Europe are stunning, with prices settling back down to not-quite-so-crazy levels. In Alberta, gas prices have fallen off again, and they are really low at Station 2 in BC.

I added a chart this week that’s been an on-going favorite of mine - the evolution of the EIA’s oil demand forecasts over time. Long story short: they are consistently being revised downward.

And, finally, I included a little personal bragging this week as my new paper with Sara Hastings-Simon, Blake Shaffer, and Tim Weis is out at Energy Policy. We show that the Renewable Energy Program (REP) introduced under the Notley government has so far generated a procurement surplus to the government of $75.5 million through last summer, with even more profits earned after our paper was finalized.

That’s it for this week!