Alberta's oil production has been more robust than you think

Carbon taxes, production caps, and the Impact Assessment Act notwithstanding...

Roughly once per month, I have a little bit of fun on social media after the Alberta Energy Regulator posts updates to its ST3 report. This report tracks oil and gas production in Alberta, and I maintain a little dashboard showing my students how to scrape and graph the data here.

Usually, after I update that page, I kick off a typical month’s trolling something like this:

The message is simple: despite what you may have heard, the policies brought in by Canada’s federal government (to say nothing of those brought in by former Alberta Premier Rachel Notley) have not stopped material growth in Alberta oil production.

You can probably guess the reaction.

Mostly, the replies can be summarized as “just imagine how much it could have grown!”

Sometimes, people include images that suggest that, but for the election of Prime Minister Trudeau and/or Premier Notley, Alberta oil production growth would have continued at 2010-2014 averages.

Sometimes, the responses include comparisons of Alberta oil production growth to either US oil production growth or, as shown below, growth in production from the Permian basin. The implication, of course, is that it’s the difference between regulation in the US vs. Canada that is holding Alberta oil production back.

The idea that, but for Trudeau and Ottawa, oil production in Alberta would have grown much faster also underpins much of the rhetoric on separation here in the province. The Alberta Prosperity project’s economic plan, for example, depends on Alberta more than doubling oil production in the next 20 years.

With that in mind, I thought I’d throw a little bit of data your way and see what you think.

Below is a graph of seven North American oil plays, including Alberta’s in situ and mined bitumen production, other Alberta liquids production (conventional light and heavy crude and condensate production combined) and US light tight oil production from the Bakken, Permian, and Eagle Ford plays, and light tight oil production from the balance of the US lower 48. I think you’ll be able to identify one of the plays just based on some of the material provided above, but can you identify all seven?

Stay tuned for an update with a little more detail and the answers to this pop oil quiz. In the meantime, here’s the latest evidence of the Liberals’ war on Alberta oil production!